Labor market analytics firm Lightcast has published a new report defining the skilled trades across 135 distinct occupations and putting a number on the shortage employers already feel: a gap of roughly 1.3 million workers against approximately 20 million existing skilled-trade jobs in the United States, or about 9% of the total workforce. The report finds the sector adds around 2.1 million job openings annually, and that retirements alone account for roughly 40% of that yearly total, a structural problem given that more than a quarter of skilled-trade workers are already 55 or older.
“The impending lack of skilled trades workers has been a resounding issue in our economy for years,” said Ron Hetrick, Principal Economist at Lightcast, in the report. Matt Walsh, the firm’s Director of Research, added that “understanding the skilled trades labor market is a high priority for all kinds of growth” as employers and policymakers look for where the next generation of these workers will come from.
Why it matters for HR leaders outside the trades themselves: skilled-trade roles pay roughly $13,000 more annually on average than comparable non-degree jobs, and Lightcast notes more than 70% of these occupations carry low exposure to AI automation, making them a genuine competitor for the same young, non-degree talent pool that retail, hospitality and logistics employers are also chasing. As The Career Ladder Is Becoming a Diamond has covered, non-degree career paths are reshaping how talent moves through the workforce, and skilled trades are now one of the more durable, AI-resistant options on that widening middle. Employers competing for entry-level workers should also note The AI Skills Wage Premium Just Hit 62%, since a wage premium tied to AI fluency and a wage premium tied to trade credentials are now pulling from the same shrinking pool of young workers, forcing every non-trade employer to compete harder on pay, training pathways or both.
Source: Lightcast
